Election 2011: Opening Salvo

So . . . it's election time in Canada.  Well, not yet, but it will be in about five weeks.  I like elections, for a number of reasons.  First of all, I really enjoy to see everyone's lawns decorated with colourful signs.  And nothing thrills me like wall-to-wall coverage of minutia by the media.  But most of all it allows us to observe some really bad decision-making in action, as the parties attempt to poke and jostle each other into gaffes while committing no shortage of their own.  I figure I'll weigh in on the election somewhat weekly (and, depending on your opinion of the blog, somewhat weakly) until election day.  Today: my unassailable predictions of what we can expect from this democratic cycle.

So without further ado, my predictions:

1.  Justin Bieber will not be the next Prime Minister.  Though there's a reasonable chance he will be someday, because he certainly has a lot of Twitter followers, and in about 8-10 years they'll be old enough to vote.

2.  There will be approximately 158 mentions (by pundits, reporters, and candidates) that in the 2008 election, 64% of Canadians voted against Stephen Harper and the Conservatives (sounds like a Motown group, if Motown groups lacked charisma).  This analysis is sub-moronic, because by the same logic, 70% voted against the Liberals, 83% voted against the NDP, and 90% voted against the Bloc Quebecois ("coalition" average: 81% against).  Unless we switch from a standard democracy in which we vote for a party to one in which we vote against (which I kinda like, and may detail in a future posting), we can't assume that not voting for someone is equivalent to voting against them.

3.  There will be no coalition of opposition parties.  And another thing about this "voting against" argument in favour of a coalition: the system is set up in a certain way, and it is set up so that the party with the largest share (irrespective of whether that forms a majority) gets to govern.  Don't like it, change the system, no argument from me.  But don't complain when the party you don't like gets to govern with a minorty but applaud when your favoured party gets to.  The key is that said party shouldn't behave as though they have a mandate from everyone. 

4.  The next election will be far more interesting than this one.  Should they lose, it is reasonable the the leaders of all four major Canadian parties (sorry Greens, you don't count - see below) will choose to or be urged to step down.  Which means that there will be fresh blood next time around.  Well, as fresh as blood gets in Canadian politics.  We don't get an Obama.

5.  The Greens will once again fail to win even a single seat.  With only 5% popular support (95% voted against them in the last election), it's really difficult to do.  Hopefully Ignatieff doesn't follow Dion's misstepping footsteps and choose not to run a candidate against that screeching harpy Green Leader Elizabeth May.  That's petty and does not act in the best interests of the Liberal party; there should be a Liberal candidate in Vancouver Island to lose along with Ms. May.

6.  We will get another sucky minority government.  Probably conservative.  Sucky minority governments suck, because they can't do anything.  I know that in theory it forces the parties to come to consensus, but in reality that doesn't happen.  Smaller parties get more power because their presence hold the consensus together, and it ends up just as a sucky combination of suckiness, horse-trading, and inaction.

42.  I will fail to number my predictions correctly.

7.  Ignatieff will lose.  This is the prediction in which I am least confident, and here's why in description form:

He is cold, impersonal, and nothing more than a political animal.  He fails to connect with Canadians, he doesn't care about public service, and only got into politics as a means to power.  He is completely unlikeable and has the mien of a character from a horror movie (and not one of the sexy teenage girls, but the bad guy).  And he will never, ever win.

Sounds like Iggy, but in reality this is how Harper was described up until his victory in the 2006 election.  Like, right up until he won.  I remember saying "Stephen Harper can never win; he's damaged goods."  Now I'm saying the same thing about Ignatieff.  So anything is possible.

Which is why I will 100% not stand behind any of my predictions, because five weeks is a long time in the political arena.  Well, I'll stand behind my Bieber prediction, but the others could very well go the other way.