We Don't Need a Weatherman To Know Which Way the Wind Blows

So . . . I've been away, but I understand there have been some pretty big changes in the world lately.  Particularly in northern Africa the middle east.  I am no expert in history and politics, so I will not comment on the causes or likely future outcomes of these changes.  The problem is that both the real and so-called experts don't really know what's going to happen either - but that's not stopping them from making predictions.  It's that old bugaboo of prediction, and how we're really bad at it.

Since the revolutions and changes in governments (read: coups) began a little over a month ago, there has been no end to the punditry and predictions going on in the news.  That is their business; they have broadcast hours and newspaper pages to fill, so they bring in people who can fill them.  The problem is when the news stops reporting the news and starts trying to predict the future.  Instead of solely focusing on what is, they focus also on what will be.  But what they say will be probably won't be. 

I have heard that the ousting of Mubarek in Egypt would set off a storm of similar revolutions elsewhere, and I have heard that it will be isolated because Egypt is fundamentally different.  Predictions have been made that this is a new day for Egyptians, and also that this will be their darkest hour.  Democracy is either on the march or never going to happen.  In other words, nobody knows anything. 

We see this in other parts of the news too.  It's not enough to report on what happened in the sporting world, predictions must be made as to what will happen.  A movie will be a blockbuster or a bust.  The economy will recover or languish.  Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I operate under the assumption that the role of news organizations is to report what is happening, not play Kreskin.  Well, that and offer highly partisan political commentary (I'm talking to you, Fox). 

The one part of the news where predicitons have always played a role is the weather.  But weather follows a slightly predictable pattern, leading to about 85% accuracy for next-day forecasts.  That drops to 15% accuracy by the third day out (yes, seven-day forecasts are useless).  Why?  Because there are too many variables at play to track them all.  Now consider that reporters and commentators are making predictions about social situations years in advance - impossible. 

Of course, the best argument for why these predictions are best ignored is the simple fact that nobody saw these revolutions coming in the first place.