Friday, June 25, 2010

Planning to Be Late

So . . . I'm the type of person who can't stand to be late, and am not very tolerant of others being late. There are always one or two students in each of my classes who can't seem to make it on time - every day they are five minutes late. This behaviour is difficult for me to understand, because to my mind if you're five minutes late every day, then just leave five minutes earlier every day.

As an aside, I have learned over time that every race, ethnicity, nationality, religion, etc. has claimed lateness as their "time". I've heard lateness referred to as arriving on Jewish time, Black time, Chinese time, Trini time, Indian time, student time, Israeli time, New York time, California time, French time, Quebec time, etc. The only exception I can think of is German time, which I think just means "on time," so it's not used as often.

A typical reaction to lateness is that we assume the offender is disrespectful, inconsiderate, or possibly spiteful. While this may be the case sometimes, I think there is a more common explanation than any of these. I'll give you an example.

When I was in high school I once drove from my house to that of my best friend in four minutes. This was a drive that typically took about eight to ten minutes, but on that one occasion I had green lights the whole way, no traffic, just perfect conditions. Would it make sense for me to only leave four minutes to get there on future occasions?

I'm sure most of you would answer no - I can't expect perfect conditions every time. But this is what a lot of people do. They may not leave only four minutes for travel, but they may leave six or seven, because that's how long it should take, as long as there are no unexpected delays. What is ignored in this decision is that things don't behave the way they should. There is generally some reason or another that the drive takes longer. As a result, the latecomers always have an excuse - "I hit every red light," "there was construction on the road," or "I hit a deer and had to strap it to the roof of my car to take it home for dinner."

This is known as the planning fallacy: the fact that we plan for ideal conditions, when ideal conditions rarely exist. If you want to be on time, you have to leave early, just in case. If you don't want to worry about money, don't budget every penny of your income, because there will always be something unexpected that comes up. The frustrating part is that you are trying to plan, but you just aren't considering those things that are out of the ordinary. With causes of lateness (e.g. traffic), because of routines, you should generally be aware of what can slow you down (though people typically only account for routine traffic, not unexpected traffic). With budgeting, it can be far less predictable: for example, you may need to fix your car after that accident that happened when you were driving recklessly to avoid being late.

There is only one way to beat the planning fallacy, which is to leave a buffer. Plan to get somewhere ten minutes early -this way you might be on time. Obviously if there is a major, rare, unexpected problem (the road is closed, your car suddenly stops running, aliens invade), you will still be late, but the rarity of these occurrences will make the the tardiness the exception rather than the rule. By the same token, if your car frequently breaks down, that should be something built into your buffer.

Anyway, if you're an on-time kinda person, realize that someone else's lateness is not because they aren't trying to be punctual, but rather that they fall prey to the planning fallacy (probably - I'm sure there are some people out there who are just jerks about it and/or don't care). I have no doubt that if you frequently point out their consistent lateness and the fallacious reasoning behind it, you won't have to worry about friends being late any longer (or for that matter, having friends).

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