Oh, What an Election Night

So . . . throw the rulebook out the window, Canadian politics is forever changed (well, forever for now).  The silly party got squeezed between the love for the sensible party and the very silly party, and was reduced to a handful of seats.  The separatists found that their support had separated from them.  The Green party finally won a seat, so now Elizabeth May gets to be irrelevant inside the House of Commons instead of being irrelevant outside of it.  But the big story, of course, is Jack Layton moving into Stornaway as the leader the loyal opposition.  Congratulations and condolences are due to Jack and his New Democratics.

The reasons for the congratulations are obvious, so why the condolences?  Well, Jack's timing couldn't have been worse (though it may not have been timing, as discussed below).  As the opposition to a majority parliament, Steven Harper doesn't have to consult at all with them, because they can pass whatever they want all on their own.  Of course, collegiality would dictate that the Conservatives should consider the entirety of parliament, but I don't think little Stevie Harper ever came home with a report card that said "plays well with others." 

So Jack has a pulpit from which to make a lot of noise, and he gets lots of chances to inquire and needle during Question Period, but he is in a relatively powerless position.  It's a problem of his own making; by gaining in popularity so much, he split the center and left votes with the Liberals, letting the Conservatives sneak in.  I don't think that the NDP could have done as well as it did without creating a blue majority (coming this fall on CBC, the political thriller "Blue Majority"). 

This results in a huge problem for Layton's bunch, because they ran using the Obama plan, which is to campaign on hope and change.  The difference is that Obama won, and has been in a position to effect change (even if he hasn't, at least to the degree he promised, which of course would have been impossible).  The orange tide that swept Quebec and the rest of Canada will be turning back to red and turquoise (assuming the Bloc gets itself together, which could very well not happen - best aspect of the election outcome) when they realize that voting NDP got them nowhere.  After all, it is exceeding clear that Quebeckers voted for the NDP because they got swept up in the momentum; how else do you explain not just the huge numbers of political neophytes elected (not just new to elected office, but new to politics) but also the stunning win of a woman who wasn't even in the country for a large part of the campaign (she was in Vegas!).  This is not a rational political choice.  It's a protest, or a message, or a fad.  And those fade.

So Layton's big win happened at a time when he (or any other opposition leader) would be most powerless to do anything.  If he can manage expectations and keep the energy going, good for him.  And thanks, Jack, for wiping out the BQ. 

That's the last of my election blogs for now.  See you in four and half years when the next one happens, and back to regular topics!