So . . . the results are minutes away from coming in (and will be in by the time you read this) but I thought I'd take this last opportunity to comment on the campaign and how it was run. I feel both happy and sad that my prediction that this would be a boring election was wrong (made here; my prediction about Bieber still stands). It certainly signalled a change in the political landscape here in Canada. Smilin' Jack had the biggest impact, of course, but all four leaders made their presence felt.
But before I get to handing out grades for the four parties and their leaders, a word on leadership and how it is assessed. Throughout the campaign Stephen Harper was deemed to be the one who had the best "leadership quality," according to something called the Nanos Leadership Index (those pollsters sure can be egotistical). Layton came in second, Iggy third. Why? I can tell why Harper had the highest leadership quality, in that he has been a leader (like it or not) to Canadians for some time now. We see him in that role, even for those who think he is an evil leader. But why Layton over Ignatieff? My guess is charisma, which the Liberal leader is sorely lacking. So federal politics is similar in that sense to high school politics - the popular kid wins.
Now for the grades . . .
Stephen Harper (B-). Good job staying on message, but the message was dull. Had a fairly strong economy on his side, and when things are going well people are resistant to change. So he didn't fail. But he also didn't necessarily succeed. With a decent track record behind him (no major mistakes), he could have taken some chances to try to win some votes. Of course, he only needed to win a few extra seats and not get a vast majority. But when you consider that those that hate him will always hate him, he had little to lose by taking a few risks.
Gilles Duceppe (F). The big loser, it's clear that he no longer appeals to his base (assuming that all the projections of an orange tide come to pass). The Bloc's expected fall is one of the more positive outcomes of the big changes we've seen over the past five weeks. Can the Bloc recover next time? Almost certainly, if they can position themselves as the only option for Quebeckers (which is a natural fit), and if Quebeckers realize that the NDP can't do anything more for them than the BQ ever did.
Michael Ignatieff (D). Didn't do terribly, but vastly overshadowed by the others. I'm not going to waste more space on him, because he's gone, gone, gone.
Jack Layton (A). The star of this campaign, winner of the "who would you like to have a beer with" contest (previous winners include Dubya, so it's dubious), and clearly the brightest star on the political scene. Possibly the next leader of the opposition and provider of some rational justification for the irrational claim that the NDP will someday form the government.
(it's 9:45, and CTV just made the stunning announcement that the Conservatives will win. Great, an answer to a question no one cares about. Will they win a majority? They don't know, and they aren't even making reference to the stupidity of the big deal they're making out of nothing)
One thing is for certain: Jack Layton was instrumental in this campaign, if only for the fact that he reduced "Canada's Natural Governing Party" to the object of ridicule, which will possibly pave the way for a Conservative majority. So, all my orange friends, enjoy the new government - you chose it.
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